Key findings

144. The local secondary school system is presently operating near full capacity,
     with a significant increase in students in recent years. Existing secondary
     schools in the east of the borough are ‘over-offering’ places, operating beyond
     their design capacities and reflecting a rate of demand that outstrips supply.
145. Existing bulge classes at Christ’s School (and potentially in the future at
     Richmond Park Academy) accommodate additional pupils and enable
     operation above capacity but are not suitable as a permanent solution due to
     pressure on the school’s limited space. Space and funding constraints do not
     allow for sufficient growth to accommodate the number of pupils forecast by
     the Council, and the numbers of students applying for secondary schools in
     the borough have been rising for several years. The SCCS states that in 2023,
     the number of unplaced children in the east of the borough together with the
     above-capacity offers of existing schools would have been sufficient to fill a
     180-place year 7 intake at a new school.
146. Schools within the borough are of a high standard and well regarded, which
     creates demand from outside the borough and is a contributor to
     oversubscription, as is the proximity of some to neighbouring boroughs, which
     increases their attractiveness to out-of-borough pupils. Nearby out-of
     borough schools are also in high demand, which is reflected in the low number
     of successful applications by pupils living in Richmond upon Thames.
     Increasing numbers of students on waiting lists without offers on National
     Offer Day, and using the Fair Access Panel, provide further confirmation of
     high demand.
147. Grey Court School and Richmond Park Academy have both opened sixth forms
     within the past decade. These are successful and they continue to grow.62 The
     SDDS recognises that they would be able to continue to build their numbers
     and resilience to potential competition from a new sixth form on the appeal
     site, for which demand would also take time to become established, and
     whose composition would most likely eventually be predominantly drawn from
     its own year 11.

148. Nonetheless, I acknowledge the parties’ concerns that overprovision in school
     places would have the potential to destabilise existing schools, including those
     outside the borough. Standing costs for schools would remain unchanged and
     viability of some of the existing surrounding schools is marginal, even with
     current demand.

The statement in para 148 is not consistent with the preceding paras. Nowhere is there a mention of falling birth rates.